The huge divergence between the ADP and BLS reports could point to a growing schism in the U.S. labor market.The huge divergence between the ADP and BLS reports could point to a growing schism in the U.S. labor market.
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There’s a scene in the cinematic masterpiece Mean Girls in which a character writes in big bloody script: “DO NOT TRUST HER.”
Apologies in advance to the good folks at ADP, who I’m sure are doing good work processing private payrolls. But we might want to keep in mind the above warning when assessing the monthly ADP jobs report.
Official labor numbers from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a higher-than-expected increase of147,000 jobs in June. The ADP report, released Wednesday, pointed to a decrease of 33,000 private sector jobs.
That’s not just a difference in magnitude, but also of direction. Emphasizing this point, the unemployment rate in June fell to 4.1% from 4.2% in the month before, defying a forecast for an increase to 4.3%.
The details lurking below the official jobs report, however, suggest I could be a tad unfair to the ADP report.
Jobs in the government rose by 73,000 in June, making up around half of the total nonfarm payroll growth for the month, as noted by CNBC’s Alex Harring. The ADP report only measures private payrolls — which exclude government jobs.
“The headline job gains and surprising dip in unemployment are undoubtedly good news, but for job seekers outside of healthcare & social assistance, local government, and public education, the gains will likely ring hollow,” wrote Cory Stahle, economist at Indeed Hiring Lab.
The huge divergence between the ADP and BLS reports, then, might not be that much of a statistical aberration — and could point to a growing schism in the U.S. labor market.
What you need to know today
The U.S. economy added more jobs in June than expected. Nonfarm payrolls increased a seasonally adjusted 147,000 for the month, higher than the estimate for 110,000. The unemployment rate also ticked down to 4.1% from 4.2% in May.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite notch new records. Both indexes rose Thursday to extend their streak of new closing highs. Yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasuryjumped.The Stoxx Europe 600pushing itself out of a loss.
Apple’s iPhone sales in China grow. The figure jumped 8% year on year in the second quarter of 2025. That’s the first time in two years Applerecorded an increase in sales in China, according to Counterpoint Research.
Trump’s massive bill passed by U.S. government. On Thursday, the House of Representatives voted in favor of the tax-and-spending bill, with a finally vote tally of 218-214. The passage of the bill is a major political victory for U.S. President Donald Trump.
[PRO] A relief to European renewable energy firms. Amendments in Trump’s bill gave renewable stocks a boost and could mean the “worst-case scenario” for the sector might not come to pass, an analyst said.
And finally…
What the U.S.-Vietnam trade deal tells us about the future of tariffs
Under the agreement between Vietnam and the U.S., Washington will apply a 20% duty on Vietnamese imports — sharply below the 46% rate Trump had imposed in early April. U.S. imports to Vietnam will not be subject to tariffs.
“What we learned from the Vietnam deal is, if anything, the tariffs are going to go up from here, not down,” Sebastian Raedler, head of European equity strategy at BofA, told CNBC’s “Europe Early Edition” on Thursday.
— Sophie Kiderlin
